Abyei must ascend the PSC agenda
As the security situation in Abyei deteriorates, the Peace and Security Council should allocate it appropriate attention.
The planned Peace and Security Council (PSC) ambassadorial discussion on Abyei on 12 March 2024 was derailed by scheduling complexities, Sudan’s suspension from African Union (AU) activities and Sudan’s official postponement request with the argument that the issue is being handled bilaterally.
It is not the first time this has happened. Discussions were deferred in 2023 despite the region’s place on the annual indicative PSC programme and deadly clashes in parts of the area. In November of that year, unknown gunmen killed 32 people in Wuncuei and Nyiel. In 2022, fighting between the Ngok Dinka and Messeriya tribes led to the death of more than 40.
Notwithstanding the region’s precarious security situation, its contested status and numerous pending issues, the last time the Council discussed Abyei was on 29 September 2022. This raises questions as to whether engagement on and attention to the region are commensurate with the gravity of its situation.
What is currently at stake in Abyei?
The Abyei crisis is linked to age-old tensions in the relationship between the Ngok Dinka and Messeriya, natural resources management and the region’s status. International efforts so far have contributed to demilitarisation and administrative and political oversight. These and the deployment of the United Nations Interim Force for Abyei (UNISFA) for civilian protection have helped to contain violence in the region. However, they have not necessarily resolved the underlying drivers of recurring violence plaguing the region.
Abyei’s crisis has its roots in Ngok Dinka-Messeriya tensions and natural resources management
While the main tensions are reported to have died down following mediation after the April 2022 clashes between the two tribes involved, major clashes persist. Contestations over the Annet border, for instance, have strained relations between the Ngok Dinka and Twic Dinka and have been blamed for a number of clashes.
In January 2024, further clashes in Nyinkuac, Majbong and Khadian resulted in more than 50 casualties, including one Ghanaian and one Pakistani peacekeeper. Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) data suggests that about 136 fatalities were recorded from incidents in Abyei between January and February 2024.
While tensions in the region may not be new, three current dimensions require close attention. The first is the apparent lack of government security force efforts to stem revenge attacks. This has led to the Ngok Dinka, in particular, defending itself and to perceptions of government complicity in certain attacks. Second is the tendency for the current attacks to increase in the lead-up to this year’s South Sudan elections due to possible attempts by rival groups to gain control over territories.
An additional factor became evident from the January 2023 attacks by Ngok Dinka gunmen in Rumamier in response to killings by Twic Dinka and Bul Nuer militias a week earlier. The spate of attacks on rival communities, apart from increasing association with annual grazing patterns, is also driven partly by the desire for revenge for previous unsolved killings by rivals.
Lack of government security force efforts to stem revenge attacks in Abyei demands attention
This raises questions about, for example, the killing of Ngok Dinka Chief Koul Deng Koul and the need for long-term management of its impact on relationships and perceptions of justice among communities.
The need for increased Council attention
The current situation provides the impetus for the escalation or repetition of security crises unless conscious efforts are made to end the violence. This is worsened if the region’s unresolved status is added to the mix. It is, therefore, important that the PSC gives Abyei the attention needed to avoid a more complex situation later. The Council should, however, consider the above dynamics and the three-pronged solution described below.
The first element is a grassroots-level solution that pursues lasting intercommunal reconciliation among the Twic Dinka, Ngok Dinka and Messeriya. While not necessarily within the direct ambit of multilateral institutions, given the layered nature of such processes and the place of sovereignty, the involvement of the Ugandan government in resolving the April 2022 clashes between the Ngok Dinka and Messeriya provides a good template.
Replicating the successes of such an approach under the auspices of UNISFA will diminish tensions in the region. Given the multilayered drivers, this might not be the only solution to address the crisis, but it will help to prevent the underlying inter-tribal tensions.
Expediting Abyei’s status and cooperation between the Sudans are key to a sustainable solution
There is also the need for long-term solutions based on resource sharing that admits and incorporates the benefits of mutuality and interdependence among the region’s tribes. Clashes and tensions originating from sharing of pastures, water and boundaries tend to be cyclical, particularly given the seasonal need for pasture and its associated crossing of boundaries into rival territories.
The PSC’s 2020 call for an expedited resolution of Abyei’s status and cooperation between South Sudan and Sudan should remain central to the search for a sustainable solution. Achieving the latter is closely linked with managing the conflicts facing the Sudans.
Until the ongoing Sudan war is resolved, securing and sustaining the interest of Sudanese stakeholders in the search for stability in Abyei will be difficult. The major implication of this situation on other challenges facing Sudan, in particular, is yet another reason why the ongoing crisis in Abyei should be a major preoccupation of the Council.
Given that the March tabling by Namibia did not happen, succeeding chairs of the Council, supported by the PSC secretariat and Political Affairs Peace and Security department, should re-table the issue for consideration without delay.
