Which country will lead Africa in the next 25 years?

This seminar discusses new ISS research on which countries have the greatest power potential in Africa.

Date: 2015-03-25

Time: 10:30 to 12:30

Venue: Conference room , ISS Pretoria , Block C , Brooklyn Court , 361 Veale Street , map

As Africa aspires to take responsibility for its development, peace and security, the question of regional leadership is key.

In an increasingly multipolar world, parts of Africa will become more prosperous. But will that change Africa’s relative influence globally? And which countries have the greatest ‘power potential’?

This seminar discussed the historical distribution of power in Africa and how it is likely to change over the next 25 years and launched the ISS’ latest paper in its African Futures series, Power and influence in Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria and South Africa.

The seminar was chaired by Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Executive Director, ISS. Speakers were Dr Julia Schünemann, Senior Researcher and Project Leader, ISS and Dr Paul-Simon Handy, Senior Research Associate, ISS.

New research presented by the ISS explores Africa in the global power context and the future capabilities of the continent’s Big Five: Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria and South Africa.

Of these countries, Ethiopia and Nigeria are forecast to increase their power capabilities significantly, whereas Algeria, Egypt and South Africa are expected to stagnate or decline. Of the Big Five, two currently punch above their weight – one that is rising, Ethiopia, and another whose growth is stagnant, South Africa. If Nigeria were able to take the necessary steps that would see far-reaching changes to the governance issues and social challenges that currently beset the country, it could become Africa’s lone superpower.

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