Turning vision into reality: Namibia's long-term development outlook

Using International Futures population forecast data, this paper presents three development-related scenarios for the country’s future.

Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system, this paper first presents a plausible long-term population forecast for Namibia. This forecast is then used to assess key targets from the National Development Plan (NDP4) and Vision 2030, Namibia’s long-term development strategy.

The paper then plots three scenarios to chart Namibia’s potential progress.

Under the Current Path scenario, the economy continues to grow, but many targets remain out of reach.

The Infrastructure Access scenario maps a future where Namibia invests heavily in infrastructure development, but this translates into less investment in other vital sectors.

Finally, the Leave No Namibian Out scenario sees overall increases in human development and economic growth, along with a slight reduction in inequality by 2030, but deep-seated structural challenges remain.

About the author

Steve Hedden is a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in the African Futures and Innovation section and a research fellow for the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.

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