Holiday Hotspots: Where are the Most Dangerous South African Destinations?
National crime statistics only provide an indication of a country’s overall trends. However, local level analysis shows that places with the highest levels and rates of violent crime are not always obvious.
Lizette Lancaster, Project Manager – Crime and Justice Hub (Consultant), Crime and Justice Programme, ISS Pretoria Office
Every
December, millions of South Africans travel to various holiday destinations - from
modest rural family homesteads to posh beachfront resorts. The aim is to relax
with relatives and friends. For many, particularly those who live in big cities
such as Johannesburg, it is also an escape from the constant worry about
personal safety. However, are our holiday destinations genuinely safer than our
usual place of residence or work? The answer may be surprising when one considers
the most reliable crime statistic, namely murder.
According
to the latest United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) survey of
countries with reliable crime statistics,, South Africa - with a murder rate of 31.9 per 100 000
people – has the 14th highest
murder rate in the world. Following an ongoing reduction of over 50% in the
murder rate since the advent of democracy 1994, South Africa now ranks
favourably when compared with countries such as Honduras (82.1 murders per 100
000 people), Jamaica (52.1 murders), United States Virgin Islands (39.2
murders) and a number of other Caribbean, South and Central American countries.
The South African homicide rate is also lower than several other African
countries namely Cote d`Ivoire (56.9), Zambia (38), Uganda (36.3) and Malawi
(36) but almost twice that of the African continent average of 17.4. Although
there have been substantial improvements in South Africa’s murder rate in
recent years, it is still four and half times greater than the global average
of 6.9 murders per 100 000 people.
A key
problem with national crime statistics is that they only provide an indication
of a country’s overall trend and do not provide an indication of the trend or risk
faced in any specific locality or community. To illustrate this, although the
USA’s national murder rate is five per 100 000 people, a visit to the USA’s of
Washington DC in 2008, may have been more dangerous than a visit to South
Africa’s capital city Tshwane. In this particular year the Washington DC murder
rate was 31.5 per 100 000 people compared with Tshwane murder rate of 26.8.
Nevertheless,
visiting a place with a high death rate does not necessarily increase the risk
to visitor or visa versa. A case in point is Thailand with a low national
murder rate of 5.3, unless it appears, you happen to be a European tourist. The
2011 British Behaviour Abroad Report published by the UK’s Foreign and Commonwealth
Office (FCO) noted that the death rate (including murder and natural causes) of
Britons in Thailand was 41 per 100,000 tourists and for those visiting Germany
was 24. Tourists from the UK are far safer visiting South Africa. The 2009/2010
FCO report revealed that the death rate amongst British tourists in South
Africa was 14.6 per 100 000. In the 2011 report, South Africa did not feature
in the top 20 country list of dangerous places to visit for British tourists.
Most South
African holiday-makers, would be surprised to know that the murder rate for
Gauteng (with 11.33 million people according to Statistics South Africa), is lower
than that of many coastal provinces. In the 2010/2011 financial year, the murder
rate for Gauteng was 29.1 per 100 000 people, compared to 47.3 for the Eastern
Cape, 44.2 for the Western Cape, 35.2 for KwaZulu-Natal. The Free State also
had a higher rate than Gauteng at 34.1. Only three provinces had a lower murder
rate than Gauteng, namely North West (23.2), Mpumalanga (20) and Limpopo
(12.2).
The 2011
murder rates for South African metropolitan areas also present a few surprises.
Buffalo City in the Eastern Cape had the highest murder rate of 56.1 per 100
000 people. Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan area, in the same province, had a
rate of 49.4. One of South Africa’s
favourite holiday destinations, Cape Town recorded a murder rate of 45.9 while
Mangaung (Bloemfontein) had a murder rate of 42 and eThekwini (Durban metro)
has a rate of 34.9. The safest metropolitan areas in relation to murder were
Tshwane (22.9) followed by Johannesburg (29.5) and Ekurhuleni (34.6) – all in
Gauteng.
Analyses
of smaller localities reveal that there are substantial differences within
provinces and cities. In the Cape Town metropolitan area precincts such as
Milnerton, Langa, Gugulethu, Harare, Nyanga, Delft and Mitchells Plain possess
far higher murder rates than the tourist locations of Camps Bay and the city
centre. For KwaZulu-Natal, areas such as Port Shepstone and Empangeni have
higher than average murder rates while in the Free State, the risk of being
murdered is larger in the Bloemspruit, Maluti, Welkom and Mangaung policing
precincts.
Fortunately for holiday-makers,
travelling to an area with a high murder rate does not necessarily translate
into a higher risk of being murdered. A 2009 SAPS internal docket analysis
found that when it comes to murder, 80%
of perpetrators are known to victims, most being relatives, friends or
acquaintances of the victims. The study also showed that 65% of the murders
occurred as a result of social behaviour, for instance, domestic conflict and
arguments associated with jealousy, alcohol and drug abuse. Only 16% of all
murders were found to be the result of criminal behaviour such as a robbery. So
for many people, staying at home may pose a greater risk of being murdered than
going away on holiday.
While murder is typically the
crime people fear the most, the picture changes when violent crime as a whole is
considered when undertaking a risk assessment of a particular area. The total
violent crime figures for the major cities, (including all reported cases of
murder, attempted murder, rape, assault and robbery), reveal that during
2010/2011 Mangaung (Bloemfontein) is a particularly violent city with 2 166
violent crime cases per 100 000 being recorded.
Johannesburg (with 1 895 violent crime cases people), was overall more
violent than Cape Town (with 1 704 cases).
The top ten most violent precincts in the
country
Station Precinct |
|
Number of Violent
Crime Incidences |
Mitchells Plain |
6 021 |
Hillbrow |
5 545 |
Umlazi |
4 845 |
Moroka |
3 944 |
Temba |
3 704 |
Phoenix |
3 596 |
Pretoria Central |
3 567 |
Eldorado Park |
3 450 |
Booysens |
3 429 |
Four of
the top ten policing precincts in the country that record the most violent
crime are in Johannesburg (Hillbrow, Moroka, Eldorado Park, and Booysens). Together, they account for 22.2% of all
violent crime reported in the Johannesburg metropolis. In turn, the Mitchells
Plain precinct alone accounts for 10.1% of all violent crime reported in the
Cape Town metropolitan area.
As crime
rates fluctuate monthly, the risk of any particular place also changes
throughout the year. The South African Police Service does not release monthly
statistics for crime. Therefore we do not know which areas are more dangerous
specifically over the festive season. At the end of the day, the statistics
will not tell you how much at risk you may be in any given area. If you
reasonable precautions wherever you are it is most likely that you will be safe
whether travelling or staying at home.