View on Africa: The seven lives of Boko Haram's leader

David Zounmenou looks at the mystery of Abubakar Shekau's apparent demise and its impact on the terror group.

Date: 2015-09-02

Time: 11:00 to 12:00

Venue: ISS Pretoria situation room (map) or , online: VoiceBoxer

Pour la version française, cliquez ici

Click here to watch the briefing video

The issue

The Nigerian army has, on many occasions, announced the death of Boko Haram’s leader Abubakar Shekau. Recently, the President of Chad, Idriss Déby, made headline news when he declared that Shekau had been killed and that the organisation has a new leader. 

Announcements such as these raise a number of questions.

Why does it matter so much if Shekau is dead or alive?

Would his death weaken Boko Haram or even cause the demise of the terror group?

What lessons can be drawn from other cases in which leaders of non-state armed groups in West Africa have been killed?

This week’s View on Africa was presented by David Zounmenou, an ISS senior research fellow based in Pretoria, who shed some light on the mystery of Shekau’s seven lives and explored its impact on Boko Haram.

Key points

• Abu Muhammed Abubakar, also known as Shekau, remains a mystery for the Nigerian Government and allies.
• Shekau inherited Boko Haram from the late Mohammed Yusuf, the very first leader of the sect, and led it into extreme and indiscriminate violence, developed a sophisticated propaganda machinery with networks across the region and considerable resources.
• Boko Haram has become a radical entity capable of seizing and controlling territories, operating rocket-propelled grenades, taking hostages and challenging the armies of Nigeria and other state in the region.
• Shekau’s rise to power produced one of the most brutal and deadly forms of terror ever witnessed in Africa.
• The Nigerian government and its regional allies would welcome the incapacitation of Shekau. Rumours about Shekau’s death could deal a blow to Boko Haram’s morale and give armed forces fighting it a confidence boost – but may not diminish Boko Haram’s overall effectiveness as a terror group.

What to watch

• Boko Haram remains extremely violent and active, but the tide started to turn in February this year.
• The sect has been defeated in some areas; territories have been regained and the group has been dispersed and is now largely confined to the Sambisa Forest in northeast Nigeria. It has also resorted to attacking soft targets rather than confronting the military.
• A multi-pronged approach is needed and Nigeria must display leadership.
• Border control needs to be more effective and the flow of funds and weapons to Boko Haram must be stopped.
• The Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) of 8 700 troops from Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, Niger and Benin must be put to work. It remains to be seen what its impact on defeating Boko Haram and terrorism in the region will be in the long-run.

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