View on Africa: Violent extremism in Kenya

Violent extremism in Kenya is constantly evolving, is the Kenyan government's response dynamic enough to adapt effectively?

The issue

The terror attack on Garissa University in eastern Kenya on 2 April 2015, where 147 students were killed and 79 others wounded, was the worst incident since the 1998 bombing of the United States Embassy in Nairobi.

The increasing number of terror attacks in Kenya since 2011 has led to the killing of more than 600 people and raised questions about the country’s vulnerability and the government’s response to violent extremism.

 

 

 

Key points

  • If al-Shabaab’s message gains traction locally in the North Eastern region of Kenya, the situation could have a serious ripple effect like that of Boko Haram in Northern Nigeria, where the northern part of the country becomes a base for violent extremism in Kenya and the region.
  • If al-Shabaab increases its attacks, especially in North Eastern Kenya, and increases its engagement of local Kenyans to conduct its operations, and the Kenyan government continues with its aggressive counter-terrorism strategies, the region could develop into an axis of violent extremism.
  • If the Kenyan government and its allies, especially the United States, increase targeted attacks against al-Shabaab in Somalia and promote pre-emptive and defensive measures in Kenya – such as improved policing, infiltrating the group, destroying the group’s camps, capturing operatives and using drones to secure the Kenya-Somalia border and North Eastern region as a whole – it could lead to diminished attacks in Kenya.
  • The situation in Kenya will, in the short and medium term, remain protracted as long as Somalia remains unstable.

What to watch

What strategies should Kenya and Somalia use to delegitimise al-Shabaab? Should the Kenyan and Somali governments even consider engaging with al-Shabaab – even behind the scenes? It will be important to see if the Kenyan government and its allies, including Somalia and Western countries, can craft a multi-pronged strategy that uses the various elements of power, but focuses less on a purely military approach.

The question for the Kenyan government is which strategies can limit the growth of radicalisation emanating from Somalia? The situation is being fuelled by Kenyan perceptions and concerns around the historical marginalisation and harassment of Somalis. What are the alternatives to aggressive counter-terrorism responses? What should Kenya do to deal with perceived economic imbalances that provide fertile ground for terrorists to exploit and recruit?

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