View on Africa: IGAD and sanctions in South Sudan

Can sanctions and IGAD mediation move the peace process forward in South Sudan?

The issue

The African Union (AU) has demanded sanctions and an arms embargo against South Sudan’s warring parties following renewed tensions and violence in the country’s Unity and Upper Nile states.

The AU threat of a comprehensive sanctions regime against South Sudan follows similar threats issued earlier this year by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the UN Security Council.

 

 

 

Key points

  • This briefing was held against the backdrop of a planned new peace process for South Sudan (the IGAD Plus peace process) and calls by the AU to impose a comprehensive sanctions regime against South Sudan's warring parties.
  • The AU’s call follows similar ones by IGAD and United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2206 that also sought to impose targeted sanctions on those responsible for undermining the South Sudanese peace efforts.
  • The possible efficacy of a sanctions regime and prospects of the IGAD Plus peace process are of key concern.
  • Targeted sanctions, if well coordinated, could help leverage key South Sudanese actors towards concession and compromise.
  • However, regional geo-political interests could easily undermine targeted sanctions and make the South Sudanese conflict more complicated.

What to watch

The AU and UNSC’s ability to promote regional cooperation and consider complementing targeted sanctions with a range of diplomatic instruments – such as financial incentives and threats of international legal retribution – will influence the success or failure of the peace process in South Sudan.

The expansion of the IGAD peace process, to IGAD plus, could dilute regional interests; but it remains to be seen whether IGAD plus can really go beyond IGAD’s previous short-term political fixes to address South Sudan’s inherently systemic conflicts and their historical roots.

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