View on Africa: Burundi elections

The upcoming elections were discussed along with the outcome of the AU summit for the third term debate in Burundi.

Date: 2015-06-17

Time: 11:00 to 12:00

Venue: Situation Room , Block C , ISS Pretoria (map) and online: VoiceBoxer

The issue

On 10 June, a presidential decree confirmed the electoral commission’s announcement that Burundi’s parliamentary elections will be held on 26 June, with presidential polls on 15 July. The African Union (AU) has called on the government to further postpone elections until a mission can ensure conditions are suitable for free and fair elections.

This week’s View on Africa looked at the recent developments in Burundi following the AU declaration, as well as the prospects for peace as the crisis continues. ISS researcher Dr Yolande Bouka discussed the human rights situation and the importance of the parliamentary elections.

Key points

The size and number of protests has diminished significantly in Bujumbura and attempts for demonstrations outside the capital have been met with heavy-handed police response.
The government is violently suppressing dissent and protests in order to claim that the crisis is over.
Despite replacing the two members of the electoral commission who resigned recently, the electoral body has lost some of its legitimacy and the support of the Catholic Church.
During the AU Summit, the Peace and Security Council issued a report calling for the postponement of the elections and announced the dispatch of military experts to ensure the disarmament of armed groups in Burundi.
An East African Community representative has argued that elections cannot be postponed indefinitely in Burundi and that they should take place before the end of President Nkurunziza’s current mandate.
There are reports of armed groups recruiting youth associated with the opposition – arguing that the time for political solutions has passed. Should these recruiting efforts get traction, there could be more sustained and systematic violence in Burundi.
While the government has officially and legally opened space for independent media outlets, only REMA Radio, a pro-government station, has been authorised to operate. The government has prohibited broadcasters such as African Public Radio and Bonesha FM, claiming that they are currently under investigation for their link to the attempted coup of 13 May.

What to watch

The CNDD-FDD has long claimed that the government is not arming the Imbonerakure, so it will be interesting to see who will be targeted by disarmament efforts.
To find a political solution to the crisis, regional actors will have to address, and take a clear position on, Nkurunziza’s candidancy.
The government has twice unilaterally changed the electoral calendar. With the parliamentary elections now scheduled for next week, will the ruling party heed the call to postpone elections until the situation on the ground is suitable?
The parliamentary elections are just as important as the presidential elections. Exclusive focus on the presidential elections ignores that the legislative agenda can be greatly influenced by either an absolute majority of the ruling party or a blocking minority by the opposition.

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