Counting the cost of war in South Sudan

In cash terms, what will the war in South Sudan cost its neighbours and the international community if the conflict festers and spreads?

The crisis in South Sudan that erupted on 15 December 2013 has devastated the lives of most South Sudanese. The impact of the subsequent brutal conflict has been well documented: thousands killed, millions displaced and almost a third of the population facing severe food insecurity. Despite the best efforts to restore peace, the conflict persists and has left wounds that will take decades to heal. The impasse in resolving the conflict makes for an extremely fragile situation.

But, what about the financial cost?

What of the collapse of oil revenues and trade and remittances, the humanitarian and peacekeeping costs? In cash terms, how much will it cost South Sudan, its neighbours and the wider international community if this conflict is allowed to fester and spread? How will all key players address the risk of South Sudan becoming a failed state, or worse, the epicentre of a full-blown regional conflict?

To address these questions, the seminar will discuss a research report conducted by Frontier Economics in collaboration with the Centre for Peace and Development (Juba University) and the Centre for Conflict Resolution from Uganda.

The report puts a price tag on five conflict scenarios and poses recommendations – and finds that the costs are likely to increase at an accelerating rate the longer the conflict persists. It concludes that early action is required.

The seminar builds on similar discussions held in Addis Ababa in January and May 2015 and a recent public lecture in Juba.

A delegation from South Sudan will participate in the question and answer session:

  • Tabitha Mathew Mathiang, Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue
  • Edmund Yakani, Executive Director, Community Empowerment for Progress Organisation
  • Paleki Mathew Obur, Executive Director, South Sudan Women’s Empowerment Network

Chair: Stephanie Wolters, Head, Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis division, ISS

Speakers:

  • Jens Pedersen, Humanitarian advisor, Médecins Sans Frontières, SA
  • Na’eem Jeenah, Executive Director, Afro-Middle East Centre
  • Netsanet Belay, Africa Director, Research and Advocacy, Amnesty International

 

Development partners
The ISS is grateful for support from the members of the ISS Partnership Forum: the governments of Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the USA.
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