INTRODUCTION

At the dawn of a new millennium, South Africa's largest urban centres are facing a major crisis which projects a less than favourable security prognosis. Large scale rural migration into these centres seems to be straining urban municipal services to their limit, while the massive crime wave is generally considered to be one of the key factors contributing to the so-called `brain drain', as well as simultaneously discouraging foreign investment in the country. This phenomenon has been known to render large parts of the developing world helpless, and South African urban centres could soon find themselves in the same predicament as cities like Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of the Congo or Freetown in Sierra Leone.

This article aims to highlight the problems facing South Africa's main urban centres by studying the experience in other parts of the developing world, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The intention is not to be a doom prophet, but to warn those who are interested in security of the possible problems in the future.

A BRIEF HISTORY OF URBANISATION

Cities are phenomena that developed during the agricultural phase of humankind's development. They symbolised a dramatic change from hunter/ gatherer societies which were more or less divided into small roving bands, to more sophisticated ones which could organise relatively complex structures, such as bureaucracies and armies, and were settled. Agricultural societies were societies that had settled in specific areas and relied on the planting of crops for survival. Organisation and pre-planning became essential qualities, as it was important to know when would be the best time to plant crops and when to harvest them. The storage of surplus food for times when crops failed and its management and protection, became vital factors in securing the stability of urban societies. This development added new complexities to human social relations. Entire new classes of people developed including soldiers, bureaucrats, teachers, craftsmen and traders.¹ Cities developed as focal points for regional civilisations and became centres for trade and development in which humans could also exchange ideas and pool their collective knowledge to formulate greater ideas. The mighty Roman and Greek empires serve as the most well-known examples of empires which were spawned and managed from city-states and lasted for centuries. Throughout history, there are signs of great cities which have been buried under the sands of time or have been concealed by jungle overgrowth indicating the collapse of once great civilisations. The great cities of Ur and Angkor Wat bear testimony to the fact that once sophisticated and ordered societies can completely disappear.² Wars, climatic changes, economic collapse and plagues have contributed much to these catastrophic developments.

During the Industrial Revolution, with the introduction of more sophisticated means of production through technological advancements in machinery, humankind's physical abilities were greatly enhanced in the production field. Rural cottage industries were rendered obsolete, thereby depriving many of a livelihood. The Luddites of Britain reacted violently to this development by rioting and destroying the offending machinery.³ However, technological progress could not be stopped. This resulted in a massive wave of migration that flooded the cities of Europe, as thousands left the countryside in search of employment in the factories of the cities. Western Europe experienced an unprecedented population growth rate due to improved methods of agriculture and medical practices which lowered infant mortality rates. An English theologian and mathematician, Thomas Malthus, was troubled by the sudden increase in the population growth rate and published an essay on the Principle of Population and its Effects on the Future Improvement of Society. Malthus's calculations warned that, as Britain's population growth rate increased geometrically from 7 million to 14 million and finally up to 112 million, the land's capacity to produce enough food to meet the demands of a large population would begin to dwindle and finally lead to famine. This almost apocalyptic prediction, however, never came true. Improved methods in agriculture and large scale migration to Britain's colonies alleviated this problem and removed the pressure that was being placed on Britain's agricultural capabilities.⁴ It has been said that Britain's population would have been 50 million stronger today, if it had not exported so many of its citizens to the colonies.

The move to urban areas resulted in a new order and changed the way once rural societies organised themselves. Thousands were housed in dreary dormitory-like towns which consisted of row upon row of houses which all looked the same and were not built for aesthetic appeal. Slums sprang up everywhere and alcoholism and crime were rife. The Charles Dickens tale Hard Times bears testimony to this traumatic but industrially progressive time span.⁵ Traditional family values were strained to the limit and many critics at the time longed back to that which they romanticised and referred to as the `golden age', a time when humankind was thought to have been in harmony with nature and experienced a happier existence.⁶

However, the benefits brought about by urbanisation seemed to outnumber the disadvantages in the long run. It encouraged lower birth rates and stabilised the population. Improvements in technology, town planning and government made life more bearable in the urban areas and stabilised the situation in general. Cities, such as New York and London, became synonyms for industrial might and economic growth. Mass industrialised industry which needed educated, literate workers in order to function smoothly, led to state-sponsored education systems for the working masses. Life in general improved immeasurably for those who strove for a better existence. Better educated populaces demanded a share in the system and democratic values flourished. In the Western world, cities played an important role in the modernisation of Western values and lifestyles.

The 1950s saw for the first time in history, that white collar office workers outnumbered the factory floor blue collar worker, something largely considered as being indicative of a significant development in human history.⁷ Certain parts of the world are now moving into a postmodern phase with its decentralised power structures, large numbers of businesses and companies are moving out of city centres and setting up offices in the more leafy suburbs surrounding them. City-states like Singapore and Hong Kong prior to being incorporated into mainland China symbolise the height of economic development and stability.⁸ Increasingly, cities are transcending the nation-state, and Vancouver, for example, does not need the rest of Canada. For how long will Shanghai be able to afford the rest of China?⁹

URBAN CRISES IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD AND SOUTH AFRICA

With the collapse of the former USSR and the end of the Cold War, there has been a need to redefine security matters. These can range from population growth, food and water security, to crime. The rate of urbanisation in the developing world exceeds that of developed countries by far, and all these factors tend to play a particularly pivotal role. They constitute the modern equivalent of the jungles and mountain citadels of the dispossessed and that irreconcilable part of humanity caught in a vicious circle of poverty, almost entirely derailed from what the developed world generally refers to as `development'. It could be that a military unprepared for urban operations across a broad spectrum, within paradoxical environments of squalor and warriordom found in cities like Mogadishu, is unprepared for tomorrow.¹⁰ ln the postmodern northern countries of the developed world, cities often represent the epitome of development and quality of life, while elsewhere they represent the epitome of human misery.

In addition, while the largely urbanised and developed populations of Western countries are stagnant or even declining, the developing world experiences an enormous increase in its population growth rate. The availability of vaccines against disease, improved agricultural production, and high birth rates have had an enormous impact on global security. Factors which once played a major role in curbing population growth rates have been defeated by the slightest technological improvements in medicine. The introduction of improved medical facilities in areas where large families are part of tradition has exacerbated the demographic situation. Close to the turn of the century when the West was at the height of its domination of world affairs, the earth's total population stood at around one billion. It is now close to six billion and demographers predict that it would possibly rise to 11 billion by the year 2050, after which it will level off.¹¹Large parts of the developing world are only just industrialising and this has had a traumatic effect on the earth's environment, as environmental degradation is exacerbated by growing populations and increasing demands on scarce resources.

The currently urbanising developing nations do not follow the same trajectory of development that today's developed nations have followed. This has had traumatic results on cultures that have not adapted their customs and social behaviour to allow them to cope adequately with the strains of an urban lifestyle. "Too many, too soon" may be the explanatory dictum to describe why urbanising populations in developing countries do not meet the expectations of Western optimists. It took cities such as New York 150 years to grow to the size of eight million, cities such as Mexico City and Sao Paulo will be larger in less than fifteen years. By the year 2050, it is said that the majority of the earth's population will be residing in urban centres. Throughout sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the developing world a new phenomenon is appearing, that of the urban megacity. Megacities have populations which consist of ten million or more. It has been predicted that at the turn of the century there will be at least twenty-one of these giants with eighteen of in the developing world.¹² Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest urban growth rate of any region: 5,8 per cent from 1965 to 1980, and 5,9 per cent from 1980-1990.¹³ The developing world megacity is very often characterised by a relatively modern centre surrounded by a vast sea of shack dwellings with little or no infrastructure. According to some estimates, Africa's urban population will have increased from 14,5 per cent in 1950 to 53,9 per cent in 2010.¹⁴ Its dissatisfied inhabitants seem notably open to agitators with ulterior political motives. Lack of resources and wealth, and disparities between the different classes of the city result in antagonism and have been seen to result in violent conflict between the opposing groups. Poor infrastructure, haphazardly built shacks and poor narrow roads provide a perfect refuge for the urban guerrilla, ethnic militias, or just plain thugs, who take advantage of the chaotic atmosphere. The Brazilian army had to support the police in operations in the barrios surrounding Rio de Janeiro as the local government had lost effective control of the area, prompting a combined police and military operation to gain control of the area.¹⁵ This kind of environment provides a home base for criminal gangs in urban areas and they often run the settlement parallel to the official government. Rio's slums, for example, are often controlled by Robin Hood-type figures who compete for loyalty with the local authorities by redistributing stolen goods among inhabitants.¹⁶

According to a study done by the University of Stellenbosch's Institute for Futures Research, it has been estimated that up to eighty per cent of South Africa's population will reside in cities or towns by the year 2026.¹⁷ Urbanisation in South Africa is therefore currently taking place at a pace unprecedented in its history, making the country's cities among the fastest growing urban centres in the world. Durban has doubled in size between 1970 and 1980. It grew by a further 77 per cent up to 1985.¹⁸ Gauteng's population, due to its highly attractive urban infrastructure and job opportunities, is also expected to double in size, from seven million to 13-14 million people in the fourteen years between 1997 and 2011.¹⁹ South Africans living within the confines of urban centres find themselves in a unique position, one could almost say that the country is a microcosm of the current global situation.²⁰ Countries concentrated in the northern hemisphere are largely well developed and wealthy; those in the south are largely underdeveloped with large and growing populations. The white population in South Africa live under conditions resembling those one would find in highly developed countries, while the conditions of a large proportion of the country's black population, while relatively better than the majority of African countries, by no way match those of the former. Developments north of South Africa's borders could affect stability within the country as dispossessed and often desperate immigrants from these regions are increasingly streaming over the country's porous borders, attracted by South Africa's relative economic wealth. One wonders to what degree this kind of phenomenon will affect South Africa, which can by no way compete with the developed world when it comes to resources and infrastructure. The relative isolation of South Africa's white population from the black population, during the apartheid era, may have created a false sense of security and an illusion among the former that they were somehow not part of this troubled continent. One could argue that a large portion of the white population had moved out of `history' in the Hegelian sense,²¹ into a postmodern one with its shopping malls, information technology and concrete highways creating a sense of being part of Western Europe or America. It may even have been thought that this lifestyle would continue unabated and indefinitely as economic input into the country would supposedly alleviate the plight of fellow black South Africans and introduce them to the joys of a Western style liberal democracy and a Western economic environment.

Such expectations have largely failed to materialise, and it appears as if there is a notable descent into a situation where predatory violence, postmodern style feudalism and ethnic conflict increasingly seem to be the order of the day. The main theme on radio talk shows in the Gauteng area is the rise in crime, especially the highjacking of luxury vehicles. Daily newspapers have been seen to dedicate an entire page on the day's latest crimes.²² It would appear that South Africa's long drawn-out low intensity conflict characterised by race and ideology, has evolved into a low intensity war of a different kind or as some analysts put it, high intensity crime replacing low intensity conflict where the threatening armies are bands of criminals with no specific political persuasion other than their own predatory needs. The generals crime syndicate leaders and warlords who have no vested interest in stability, will eventually drive their prey out of this country as is indicated by the exodus of South Africa's educated to greener pastures. The early symptoms of apparent decline into a kind of anarchic `dark age', seem most prevalent in the continued urbanisation process. It has been estimated that thousands of Gautengers who have no way of leaving the country, have immigrated to the relative safety of Cape Town in order to escape this trend.

So powerful are the effects of population growth and migration that not even with the establishment of apartheid legislation could the National Party Government prevent the large scale migration of rural blacks into South Africa's major urban centres. Urbanisation in itself is not bad and, provided it takes on an evolutionary nature which remains in step with the pace of human development, it can lead to an improved lifestyle and access to better facilities. As with population growth, there is no direct linear relationship between urbanisation and violence, but when the process is combined with other factors, such as imploding infrastructure or infrastructural overload, declining legitimacy and effectiveness of the state and economic problems, the result is incendiary.²³ With the removal of legislation regarding influx control in 1986, there was a massive influx of rural inhabitants into cities like Johannesburg.²⁴ Huge squatter settlements began to develop on the outskirts of South African townships, many of which choke the major access routes. It has been estimated that the informal settlement bordering on the outskirts of Carletonville's township Khutsong, outsizes the formal township.²⁵ During the political turmoil of this period, the problem was only exacerbated. Attempts at trying to remove the inhabitants of informal settlements gave way to attempts to try and regulate them by the introduction of registered informal settlements. The conflict which afflicted the Crossroads squatter settlement on the outskirts of Cape Town, revolved around the removal of black squatters from informal settlements to the officially established township of Khayalitsha on the Cape Flats.²⁶ Pitched battles between police and squatters, as well as between pro-ANC comrades who were against the move and more conservative `witdoeke' who were in favour of moving, occurred. After much conflict which was televised around the world and the outcry of members of the international community, the National Party ceded and attempted to accommodate the squatter community in order to prevent further blight on its name as it tried to reform its image of a racist apartheid organisation.²⁷

WATER SCARCITY

Urban centres throughout much of Africa's densely populated regions are in danger of collapsing under the weight of resource scarcity. Most experts agree that the scarcity of water will play a major role in the proliferation of conflicts in the near future.²⁸ According to United Nations figures, 600 million people are officially homeless or living under life-threatening urban conditions, more than a billion lack sanitation and a further 250 million have no easy access to water. The overwhelming speed at which the world is urbanising leaves little time to adapt. Extreme water shortages face developing cities in the next fifteen years. More than a billion people cannot get clean drinking water, while the drinking of dirty water is the cause for up to eighty per cent of diseases in the developing world. In Khartoum the average person spends two-thirds of her/his monthly income on the acquisition of drinking water, largely as a result of leaking water pipes and continued population growth. It is believed that South Africa too, will face extreme water restrictions for similar reasons within the next ten to fifteen years. Water supplies for future development could dry up within the next thirty years if timely precautions are not taken.²⁹

POPULATION MIGRATION

Figures are not exact, but it has been said that there are between two million and eight million illegal immigrants within South Africa's borders, although the most recent census indicates that this figure is considerably lower than many originally thought.³⁰ Many of these immigrants come from war-torn African countries north of South Africa's borders. It is estimated that illegal immigration into South Africa has increased by 317 per cent since in 1988. Conservative estimates indicate that each illegal immigrant costs the South African taxpayer R400 per year.³¹ In 1995, this figure added up to two billion rand. One must take into consideration that the migration of the Indo-European tribes into what we refer to today as Western Europe, played a major role in destabilising the Roman Empire, ultimately leading to its downfall and drastically changing the face of Europe. The efficiency of information technology and its free availability, has made it possible for the youth of the developing world to see how the developed part of humanity live. Satellite television and radio make it possible for a peasant living in the remote countryside to see how well the `other side' lives.

In 1990, after the fall of communism in Albania, considered by many to be a European country still in its developing phase, thousands of refugees commandeered boats and attempted to migrate across the lonese Sea to Italy. It was said that an Italian television advertisement, beamed by satellite, which featured a cat being served cat food on a silver tray, played a major role as a catalyst in this sudden development. The inhabitants were under the impression that a country which could serve its feline pets on silver trays, was surely the proverbial `land of milk and honey' with plenty for all.<sup>32</sup> South Africa's relative wealth to the rest of Africa is acting as a magnet for the poverty stricken of sub-Saharan Africa. The dispossessed of this world are seduced by images of ample wealth. Faced with possible starvation, genocide and war, thousands of inhabitants are willing to cross mine-fields, crocodile infested rivers and electric fences in order to flee to South Africa. In 1994, a 14-year-old Rwandan boy, clad only in a T-shirt and a pair of shorts, made his way to South Africa on foot to escape the genocide in that country. One Tanzanian refugee has said that South Africa is a light at the end of Africa, even if you have to live on the streets you will not starve. The face of South Africa's most densely populated urban neighbourhood, Hillbrow, is changing drastically. French has seemingly become the lingua franca of Hillbrow's streets. The fifty-storey Ponte Centre in Berea, was once a high class apartment complex. It is now almost exclusively inhabited by refugees from the former Zaire and is referred to as `little Zaire' and is in danger of turning into just another urban slum as businesses pull out of this once prestigious neighbourhood. It is estimated that there are up to fifty thousand inhabitants from Nigeria and Zaire living in Hillbrow, many of whom are thought to be members of crime syndicates and drug traffickers. Large scale migration of foreign nationals from sub-Saharan countries is blamed for the awakening of xenophobic feelings among local inhabitants of South Africa's black population, as many feel that they contribute to South Africa's high levels of crime and take jobs away from locals in South Africa's already job scarce labour market. It is believed that up to ninety per cent of Nigerians, who claim that they are political exiles, are in fact drug smugglers.³³ Several Nigerian drug smugglers have been arrested with passports indicating that they indeed have political exile status. South Africa's new ANC Government is reluctant to take harsher actions against illegal immigrants, as it feels it has a debt to pay to African countries that hosted them during their years of exile. By 1996, fourteen per cent of crime in South Africa was linked to illegal immigrants, including murder, drug trafficking, and arms smuggling.³⁴

CRIME

South Africa's crime rate is unacceptably high. The number of murders of police officers in this country is among the highest in the world. In Gauteng alone, police were attacked 169 times during the first three months of 1997.

It has been estimated that there is an average of up to fifty murders a day, nine times higher than the United States average.³⁵ Cicero has said that the good of the people is the highest law, however, this probably only applies in countries which are stable and wealthy. Crime is considered to be one of the greatest threats to the South African democracy. Anarchy could be considered the next step to tyranny, and if crime is not reduced to reasonable levels, a tyrannical government may be needed. South Africa has been rocked by a series of brutal attacks involving the torture of victims and the rape of female victims, including minors.

Criminal psychologists in the US speak of a new breed of criminals emerging, coining the term `super predators'. They consist of a lost generation of youth who have been born into broken or single parent homes and have not been taught the basic values needed to maintain the social fabric of any successful law abiding society. South Africa's large youthful population contributes to this to a great deal. Demographers estimate that more than fifty per cent of South Africa's population will be under the age of sixteen by the year 2025. A large section of today's youths have grown up in a climate of violence and have been taught to oppose the authorities. Even now that the ANC is effectively running the country, many of these youths feel betrayed by the fact that they have not been awarded prime positions in the country's security forces. Deputy President Thabo Mbeki chastised the youth of South Africa for poor attendance at the 1997 Soweto Day commemorations. Journalists interviewing a group of youths, reported that they were on their way to the suburbs to find a luxury car instead.³⁶ There have been calls for a nation-wide state of emergency and for troops to be deployed to South Africa's crime spots. It seems as if the coercive powers of the state are rapidly diminishing as we enter the dawn of the 21st century. Gone are the days when a policeman in his tunic with its shiny buttons and belt could confidently stroll down a street playfully swinging his baton as a symbol of law and order. Even in stable countries, policemen look increasingly like paramilitary forces with combat style fatigues, boots, armoured vehicles and assault rifles. In the case of South Africa, many would say that this is the result of the previous apartheid era where a large part of the force was actively involved in a counter-insurgency role. However, the world over, as weapons of military calibre are more available and the organisation of criminals improves, law enforcement agencies seem forced to change their modus operandi. It is the policeman on footpatrol that knows that things are not the same anymore.

South Africa has seen a proliferation of security companies, suggesting a privatisation of state services, as it is becoming increasingly difficult for the South African Police Service to deal with the epidemic that is sweeping this country. Israeli historian, Martin van Crefeld, says that military forces will have to get used to moving away from conventional military roles and playing a greater policing role. This became evident in the case of Brazil, where federal troops were sent into the squatter camps which abound on the slopes of the hills surrounding Rio de Janeiro, as the Government had effectively lost control in those areas. South Africa's police force was always accused in the past of being too harsh in its dealings with the general population and its paramilitary style of training, uniforms and vehicles drew much criticism from so-called experts of policing from the developed world. These critics are now themselves resorting to such measures. This situation is gradually emerging in once stable communities which are increasingly faced with immigrants from developing countries who seem more violence prone and acquainted with the `logic of violence', i.e. understanding its value in the competition for resources among civilised societies.

Their tendency to join or form gangs in high numbers, while resorting to a form of violence which has become virtually unknown in modern Western society, is radically changing the `rules of the game' on the streets of many Western cities. The Los Angeles Police Department, for example, employs their official SWAT team on a full-time basis, as they increasingly come into contact with criminals that outgun them. The needs of police officers have increasingly led them to resort to military style training and clothing, making their training manuals almost indistinguishable from military ones. As criminals come to be seen as the pre-eminent security threat in many countries, as they become better organised, better equipped, and interlinked, armed forces and the police will perform many of the same functions and may eventually become indistinguishable themselves.³⁷ Squatter settlements with their informal structures have become havens for subversive forces. Lack of infrastructure, even the absence of any road signs which at least indicate some sort of authority, easily lead to this kind of atmosphere where state authority is no longer visible nor tangible.

South Africa's high crime rate has been attributed to many factors and there is no doubt that there are many variables involved. High unemployment, the large youthful population and the social effects that the apartheid system has had on South Africa's black population, are but a few of these factors. South Africa's wealthy are largely white and educated, and part of the information revolution which is sweeping the globe. They are guaranteed to live a comfortable postmodern lifestyle and lead the way in wealth generation. The developing black élite will also enjoy the fruits of the new information revolution, but the large majority of this country's inhabitants will remain excluded from them. The dispossessed will be bitter and will fail to understand why they are not benefiting from political reforms. These vast wealth disparities between the two groups will most probably lead to conflict and give birth to conspiracy theories about the control of wealth.

MODERN DAY FEUDALISM AND THE ECOLOGY OF FEAR

Since humans settled and began to own valuable possessions, these have had to be defended from marauders. From the Great Wall of China to the castles of feudal Europe, walls have been symbols of guarded wealth and privilege. Over the past decade there has been a remarkable increase in the height of the walls surrounding urban residences in South Africa. Security consciousness has almost become a pathological state of mind with South Africans, especially those living in crime ridden areas such as Gauteng. American urban theorist Mike Davis coined the term `ecology of fear' to describe this climate, while carrying out studies in South Central Los Angeles of the problems facing its large multicultural population.<sup>38</sup> Cluster homes with their high walls topped with electrified security fences and controlled entrances are becoming increasingly popular and have often been referred to as `siege architecture'. Neighbourhoods plagued by crime have attempted to form block watches, as the coercive powers of the state can no longer be relied upon. In more extreme cases, they have tried to wall off entire neighbourhoods, making access available through a controlled point, and almost forming modern day versions of feudal fiefdoms. This has fallen foul of the law as it contravenes traffic regulations dealing with public access to public roads and ironically puts law abiding citizens in direct conflict with the very institution which is supposed to protect them.

MODERN DAY HIGHWAYMEN

Where modern day alarm systems and guarded parking have succeeded, highjacking has taken off. Gauteng is considered to be South Africa's hijacking capital. Disgruntled residents living close to major transport routes, find it easy to carry out attacks on motorists. Prior to the 1994 elections, Cape Town's N2 highway, which also leads to its airport, was dubbed the `hell-run' by Cape Townian motorists as a result of the large number of stonings which occurred along the highway. Stones are primitive weapons, but an average hand-sized rock against the windscreen of a vehicle travelling at 120 kilometres an hour, makes it deadly. The stone throwers can easily flee into the surrounding maze of informal dwellings, classifying this activity as a form of urban guerrilla warfare. A security fence set up to keep people off the highway actually serves to the advantage of stone throwers, who throw and shoot from behind a wall, impeding the efforts of any security force members patrolling the highway. Soldiers had to be deployed along the highway at strategic points prior to the 1994 elections. Overhead bridges became danger zones for passing motorists as a common practice was to stand on the bridge and fling a large-sized rock onto the windscreen of an oncoming car or to tie a heavy object to a rope or cable and dangle it at windscreen height in the hope that an oncoming vehicle would collide with it. In order to prevent or at least make this kind of attack more difficult to carry out, authorities had to place metal type caging over bridges which passed over the N2.

TAXI WARLORDS AND HAWKERS

The birth of South Africa's taxi industry in 1984 was said to be a South African economic miracle. It employed more people than the mining industry and provided thousands of black South Africans with opportunities for employment. This has taken an ominous turn over the years as the taxi industry has grown. There are daily reports of gun battles between rival taxi associations in which people are killed. Conflict over taxi routes and taxi ranks plays a major role in this regard. Paid hit squads exacerbate the conflict, with taxi warlords trying to eliminate competition. Poaching on transport routes of rival taxi organisations can result in the death sentence for the culprit. Taxi groups have managed to acquire large numbers of firearms illegally and are heavily armed. It is becoming increasingly difficult for traffic authorities to enforce the law for minor infractions, such as failing to stop at a red traffic light or double parking, without risking abuse and possible death. In 1992, Johannesburg was almost brought to a virtual standstill by taxi drivers protesting against fines. The resulting three-day protest was punctuated by the sound of automatic rifle fire as taxi operators and policemen fought it out in the streets. Recent attacks on foreign hawkers in the Johannesburg central business district indicated a growing climate of xenophobia among South Africans competing for scarce employment resources.³⁹ Even economic saviours are becoming security threats in South Africa, as people who are otherwise law abiding citizens, battle it out in a market where competition is stiff.

MOB JUSTICE AND THE COLLAPSE OF THE LEGAL SYSTEM

The murder of an ANC councillor at the former Swannieville squatter settlement outside Kagiso in Krugersdorp on the West Rand, by a group of school children who actually wanted to see a relative of his in connection with the murder of a 19-year old school girl, indicates a distinct sense of intolerance and ignorance of the procedures followed by a democratic state in the application of justice.⁴⁰ This kind of behaviour, which is relatively common in many of the country's urban settlements, is reminiscent of the turmoil of the mid-eighties when youth activists took it upon themselves to punish members of their communities whom they considered to be collaborators with the old apartheid government. These youth activists added a frightening dimension to South Africa's political turmoil and were known for their violent behaviour to the point that some feared a Khmer Rouge-type element was emerging among South Africa's township youth.

PROLIFERATION OF ILLEGAL FIREARMS

Many of Southern Africa's front-line states have been beset with civil war and strife since their independence. Mozambique has been a prime source of illegal migrants entering South Africa. Many of the illegal weapons entering into South Africa originate from this country. The proliferation of AK-47 assault rifles is attributed to smugglers coming in from Mozambique. Many of these weapons do not necessarily belong to criminals, but to ordinary Mozambican citizens, once members of the country's official armed forces, who are willing to sell anything to fend off starvation. In addition, Mozambique's security forces have been plagued by a series of mutinies and discipline is generally not up to standard. During the political upheaval that took place in South Africa's townships, the AK-47 was the prized weapon of any Self-Defence Unit (SDU) member. It was said that former Mozambican residents with military training helped train township SDUs, with Phola Park on the East Rand being named as an example.⁴¹ During the late Joe Slovo's tour of the embattled townships of Katlehong and Tokoza, sporadic gunfire from the direction of an lnkatha supporting hostel caused SDU members to produce AK-47 assault rifles which judging by their wild and random firing in which journalist Omar Shariff was killed indicated a lack of training and discipline. A recent police raid on a house in Gauteng which was being used by members of a Bulgarian crime syndicate, revealed a receipt for the importation of ten thousand AK-47s, indicating a large market for illegal military type weaponry in South Africa.⁴² Although analysts claim that the AK-47 is not the prime weapon involved in crimes in South Africa, in those instances where it is used, it very often enhances the firepower of the perpetrator of the crime and often gives the criminal greater firepower than the policeman. The AK-47 is known for its robustness and is simple to use and maintain.

DISEASE

The death of Johannesburg nursing sister Marilyn Lahana in November 1996, sent shock waves throughout South Africa, especially among those familiar with the book Outbreak. Her death was caused by the dreaded Ebola virus, named after the Ebola River in the former Zaire where it was first identified. She contracted the virus from a Gabonese doctor who had come to South Africa to receive medical treatment which he could not obtain in his own country. The very first two outbreaks that had been identified, took place in hospitals and in the first incident killed everyone in the hospital. For years, virologists and epidemiologists have been warning of the possible return of infectious diseases and the emergence of new ones not yet known to man. Diseases kill indiscriminately and without intention, and tracing the source of such a threat is almost equivalent to attempts to trace a needle in a haystack. The first outbreak of a disease of this nature took place in a prestigious hospital where it was quickly identified and isolated.

How long will it be before such an outbreak, involving a similar or more infectious pathogen, occurs in one of Johannesburg's densely populated neighbourhoods, such as Hillbrow or Berea? An event like this would be of mammoth proportions for South Africa's already over-extended health services. The outbreak of Ebola in the former Zairian town of Kikwit required army troops to surround the town and prevent locals from fleeing the epicentre of the infection in order to prevent the disease's spread to other regions of the country.

CONCLUSION

It appears as if an `end of history' is not in sight for the new South Africa. South Africa is situated at the end of a continent that is wracked with poverty and endemic crime and warfare. South Africa, with its relatively well-developed infrastructure, economy and institutions, is considered to be an example to the rest of the continent, to others it is the land of milk and honey and green pastures. If South Africa is to act as a stabilising force in sub-Saharan Africa, it will have to be ensured that the country is not transformed into just another `basket case' by endemic crime and corruption. If South Africa is to function as the backbone of the Southern African Development Community, it is imperative that the centres of wealth creation are stabilised in the country.

ENDNOTES

J Weatherford, Savages and Civilisation, Crown Publishers, New York, 1994.



A Toffler, The Third Wave, William Collins and Sons, London, 1980.



W Rees-Mogg & J D Davidson, The Sovereign lndividual, Sidgwick and Jackson, London, 1997.



P Kennedy, Preparing for the21st Century, Harper-Collins, London, 1995.



P F Drucker, The Age of Social Transformation, Atlantic Monthly, November 1994.



Mass ideologies, such as Marxism, which intended to solve the Industrial Era's mishaps through scientific social engineering, found fertile ground among the urban proletariat.



A Toffler, War and Anti-War, Little Brown and Company, New York, 1993.



S Huntington, The Clash of Civilisations and the Remaking of World Order, Simon and Schuster, New York, 1996.



P Peters, The Future of Armored Warfare, Parameters, Autumn 1997.



R Peters, Our Soldiers, Their Cities, Parameters, Summer 1996.



M O'Connoly & P Kennedy, Must It Be The West Against The Rest, Atlantic Monthly, December 1994.



Megacities, Time Magazine, I I January 1993.



R Kaplan, The Ends of the Earth: A Journey at the Dawn of the 21st Century, Papermac, London, 1997.



S Metz, Strategic Horizons: The Military Implications of Alternative Futures, Parameters, Autumn 1997.



Interview with Martin van Creveld, Wars of the 21st Century, Newsweek, 17 April 1995.



W Mendel, Combat in Cities: The LA Riots and Operation Rio, http://www-leav.army.mil/fmso/lic/lic.htm>



The Star, 18 August 1996.



L Cornwell, Dynamics of Development, Department of Development Administration, University of South Africa, 1995.



Thousands Fall through Parole Cracks in City, Pretoria News, 10 February 1997, p. 4.



The political power of demographics seem apparent. It is believed that the South African
Government's decision to abandon apartheid was largely due to its recognition of the white's shrinking share of the total population, from one-fifth in 1951 to one-seventh in the early eighties to a projected one-ninth or one-eleventh by 2020. This made it logistically impossible to maintain and justify economically. This has caused a justifiable concern for members of the white and coloured population of South Africa as they fear being swamped and marginalised politically in the future.



F Fukuyama, The End of History, The National Interest, 1989.



The Citizen, 27 August 1997.



Metz, op. cit.



J Kane-Berman, South Africa's Silent Revolution, SIRR, Johannesburg, 1990.



See T Homer-Dixon, Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of South Africa, part 1, http://www.libraryutoronto.ca/www/pos/ print.htm>



A Sparks, The Mind of South Africa, Mandarin Paperback, London, 1990.



Ibid.



J Starr, Water Wars, Foreign Policy, Spring 1991.



Will Dark Crime Cloud Ever Lift?, The Star, 14 July 1997.



Surprise: SA has only 38m People, The Citizen, 2 July 1997.



The Great Trek to the South, The Cape Times, 6 April 1997.



O'Connoly & Kennedy, op. cit.



Cape Town Attracts African Political Exiles, The Cape Times, 17June 1996.



H Solomon & J Cilliers, People, Poverty and Peace: Human Security in Southern Africa, IDP Monograph Series, 4, May 1996, p 9.



Help Police Fight Crime Public Urged, Citizen, 18 April 1996.



Mbeki Chastises New Generation at June 16 Commemoration, Sunday Independent, 22 June 1997.



Metz, op. cit.



M Davis, Urban Control: The Ecology of Fear, Open Magazine Pamphlet Series, 4, Westfield, New Jersey, 1994.



How School Mob Killed Councillor, Citizen, 25 June 1997.



S R Maninger, The Volkstaat as an Ethnic Conflict Regulator in South Africa, unpublished Thesis, Rand Afrikaans University, 1997.



D Reed, Beloved Country: South Africa's Silent Wars, Jonathan Ball Publishers, Cape Town, 1994.



Ibid.