BOTSWANA

Preliminary results of the 2001 population census give Botswana a population of 1,68 m. Annual population growth during the 1990s was 2.4% compared to 3.5% during the eighties, a decline due to a drop in total fertility associated with more effective family planning and the spread of AIDS, but less of a decline than anticipated owing to increased migration into Botswana.

Botswana has seen rapid urbanization, the urban population increasing from 18% in 1981 to 52% in 2000 according to (broadly defined) government estimates, although the UN reports a 28% urbanization rate. The inability to eke out a living in the rural areas is driving growing numbers to the few urban areas, where employment opportunities are rare while housing and urban facilities cannot cope with the inflow. Some 50% of the total population lives within 100km of Gaberone.

Though the population is relatively homogeneous, the overwhelming majority speaking Setswana, the Batswana never had any overarching chiefdom, and there is some latent rivalry between the smaller chiefdoms and the dominant BamaNgwato. Of growing concern is the plight of the Khoi-san people, who find themselves increasingly marginalized or forced into a position of servitude.

The major portion of the population thus has not gained greatly from the national economy’s spectacular growth since independence. The highly uneven distribution of income and assets in the agricultural sector, especially cattle ranching, is becoming even more pronounced.

Social indicators

Botswana's social indicators have improved considerably: between 1985 and 1993 the share of the population living below the poverty line fell from 59% to 47%. Spending on education and health increased by 170% in real terms between 1980/81 and 1998/99.

Education

The government has made impressive achievements on the education front: the provision of almost universal free education, an increase in adult literacy from 34% in 1981 to the current estimated 74%, and a pupil/teacher ratio of 28:1 in primary schools.

Health

Botswana has a well-developed and decentralized primary healthcare system. The under-5-years mortality rate has declined significantly and is now less than a third of the average for sub-Saharan Africa, while the incidence of child malnutrition is less than half of that for the subcontinent. Malaria is rife in the north.

HIV/AIDS

Botswana is at the epicentre of the global HIV/AIDS virus. In late 2001 a UN report put the incidence of HIV/AIDS amongst those aged 15-49 years at 38.8% of the population, the highest rate in the world, and more than triple the 1992 rate. Life expectancy which has already declined from a peak of 63 years in 1991 to 44 years, is expected to decline to only 29 years in 2010 if the virus is not slowed down or reversed. The impact on the economy suggests that the real rate of annual GDP growth will be cut by as much as 1,5% over the next decade. (The Botswana Institute for Policy Analysis.) Health spending could triple in the next decade and, in 2025, the economy is expected to be 30% smaller that it would have been without the epidemic.

Food security

Major foodcrops: sorghum, pulses, vegetables. In contrast to the rest of southern Africa, officials estimated that Botswana’s food security is guaranteed until January 2003. The country imports most of it’s requirements so production shortfalls are met through commercial purchases. Nevertheless, the overall food supply situation is forecast to be satisfactory, a reflection of the country's commercial import capacity. It is anticipated that commercial imports will total some 250,000 tonnes.

Last updated February 2003